Conflicts, much like human nature, tend to be unpredictable. Yet when we know the actors — or the territory — well enough, while we may not be able to predict events with mathematical precision, we can often identify clear warning signs. In recent days, Chinese forces have once again been operating around the Spratly Islands, triggering renewed friction with other countries that also claim sovereignty over the archipelago.
Most of the Spratly Islands are uninhabited. However, two key factors explain why they are so fiercely contested by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines: their vast natural resources and their strategic location. Each year, more than three trillion dollars’ worth of global trade passes through the waters of the South China Sea, where the islands are located. In addition, around 40% of the world’s liquefied natural gas transited through this region last year.
It is therefore hardly surprising that China has continued to expand its presence in the area, reinforcing its military bases and constructing artificial islands covering several square kilometres.
At a time when the world’s attention is largely absorbed by the coronavirus outbreak, China is once again advancing its maritime claims through faits accomplis. All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of the most extensive global public relations campaign Beijing has ever undertaken.